Arizona will have a rebounding advantage and be able to limit Xavier's second chance points. Xavier doesn't the size to match up with Arizona's bigs.
Winner: Arizona
Duke wins this due to their stronger defense and ability to generate free throws.
Winner: Duke
This game is going to come down to rebounding and defending without fouling.
Winner: Duke
Winner: Kansas
Angel Delgado is the key to this game. NC State is a poor defensive rebounding team and has a below average overall defense. If Delgado can get offensive rebounds and score on the interior, Seton Hall will win.
Winner: Seton Hall
New Mexico State's combination of elite defense and elite rebounding will be too much for a Clemson team who lost their best player in January.
Winner: New Mexico State
Auburn will win this due to second chance points and free throws.
Winner: Auburn
Syracuse plays at an extremely slow pace. Syracuse will rely on their elite defense to force steals and blocks, slow the game down, and get offensive rebounds and free throws.
Winner: Sycracuse
Michigan state has a much better offense and defense than Bucknell and they will significantly out rebound them.
Winner: Michigan State
Trae Young won't be able to carry this team to a win. He'll put up big numbers, but the supporting cast won't. Rhode Island will slow the game down, force steals, take care of the ball, and grab offensive rebounds.
Winner: Rhode Island
This Duke team is too good defensively for Iona to have a shot at a win.
Winner: Duke
This game depends on Azubuike's knee. If he's not fully healthy, Kansas' defense and rebounding will drop considerably. If he's not fully healthy, Kansas will barely win this. But if he's out, Kansas will lose. Assume he plays.
Winner: Kansas
Auburn's main source of offense is 3 pointers, offensive rebounding, and free throws. New Mexico State has one of the best 3 point defenses, is an elite rebounding team, and doesn't foul too often.
Both teams are elite defenses. Michigan State has an elite offense and elite rebounding.
Winner: Michigan State
Duke is better than Rhode Island in every statistical category aside from turnovers per game.
Winner: Duke
New Mexico State doesn't have enough of the traits that 3 win 12-seeds have.
Winner: Kansas
These teams are evenly matched. Duke will most likely win the turnover battle and foul less, and Michigan state will most likely win the rebounding battle. Duke can get free throws more consistently and that will be the key to this game.
Winner: Duke
Kansas has faced teams with a great rebounder each round. This time they have to deal with two.
Winner: Duke
#1 Xavier vs #16 (Play in game)
Winner: Xavier
Missouri is a very slow paced team that shoots a high number of 3's at a great percentage. They move the ball well, and their overall offense is above average in efficiency. They have a great defense that defends the 3 point line well and can block shots. They are a good but not great rebounding team.
Missouri has a great scorer, and one good rebounder. They have a player who can consistently generate free throws. Michael Porter Jr can be a big game changer for this team and will give their offense another scoring threat, while also improving their overall rebounding. This team should be slightly better than their statistics indicate.
Florida State plays at an extremely fast pace. They have aa very efficient offense. They struggle to defend the 3 point line, but have a great overall defense. They are one of the best shot blocking teams in the country and tend to force steals. They are a great offensive rebounding team, but struggle to defensive rebound.
Florida State does almost everything by committee, except block shots. They have two excellent shot blockers.
Florida State won't be able to keep up with Missouri's 3 point shooting. Their offensive rebounding advantage will be minimized with Porter's return.
Winner: Missouri
Ohio State is a very slow paced team with an extremely efficient offense. They have a great overall defense and are roughly average at defending the 3 point line. They can block shots without fouling. They are a great rebounding team and an elite defensive rebounding team. They are good at limiting their turnovers.
Ohio State has one elite scorer. They have a player who can somewhat consistently generate free throws, a player who can grab offensive rebounds, and a shot blocker.
South Dakota State is a very fast paced team that takes an extremely high number of 3's and makes them at an elite rate. Their overall offense is efficient as well, but has poor passing. Their defense is slightly above average and doesn't foul often, but they can't block shots or force steals regularly. They are one of the best defensive rebounding teams in college basketball and rarely turn the ball over. They are poor offensive rebounders.
South Dakota State has an elite scorer and rebounder who can consistently generate free throws.
It wouldn't shock me if South Dakota State wins this, but they don't fit the historical trends for extremely fast paced 12 seeds pulling off upsets due to their lack of offensive rebounding and steals.
Winner: Ohio State
Gonzaga is an average paced team with an extremely balanced an efficient offense. They are an elite defensive team that struggles to defend the 3. They are an elite rebounding team that rarely turns the ball over or fouls.
Gonzaga has an elite rebounder who can consistently grab offensive rebounders. They have a player who can consistently generate free throws.
UNC Greensboro is a very slow paced team that lives and dies by the 3 offensively. They are an elite rebounding team and an elite defensive team. They foul and turn the ball over often but steal the ball regularly.
UNC Greensboro has one elite rebounder, one player who can consistently grab offensive rebounds, and they have a shot blocker.
If Greensboro was better at getting free throws, they'd be a great upset pick. Without that skill set, they won't beat Gonzaga
Winner: Gonzaga
Houston is a slow paced team that has an efficient offense with great 3 point shooting. They have one of the best defenses in college basketball and defend the 3 very well. They are an elite rebounding team, and one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They take care of the ball, but are one of the most foul heavy teams in the country.
They have an elite scorer in Rob Gray Jr who can consistently generate free throws. Houston has a player that shoots 7 3 pointers a game at 44%.
San Diego State is an average paced team that is poor at shooting 3's , but moves the ball well and has an efficient offense. They have a poor overall defense, but excel at 3 point defense. They are a great rebounding team, but Houston is better at both offensive and defensive rebounding. They rarely do not foul or turn the ball over often.
San Diego State has very balanced scoring but no elite scorer.
Winner: Houston
Michigan is a very slow paced team with an extremely efficient offense that takes a high number of 3's. They have good but not great defense. They are an elite defensive rebounding team that struggles to get offensive rebounds. They very rarely foul or turn the ball over.
Montana is an above average paced team that avoids shooting 3's but has an efficient offense. They take a high number of free throws and have an great defense that is average at defending 3's. They are a great offensive and defensive rebounding team that is elite at forcing steals.
Montana comes close but Michigan wins.
Winner: Michigan
Texas A&M plays at an above average pace and passes the ball very well. They have an efficeint overall offense, but struggle from 3. They have one of the top overall defenses in college basketball. They are one of the best shot blocking teams in college basketball. They are an average defensive rebounding team but an elite offensive rebounding team. They rarely foul, but don't take care of the basketball.
A&M has two elite rebounders, two great offensive rebounders, a shot blocker, and a player who can consistently generate free throws.
Offensively, Providence is a worse version of A&M. They have an average defense but a great 3 point defense. They are a below average rebounding team.
Providence has a player who can consistently grab offensive rebounds and a player who can somewhat consistently generate free throws.
Winner: Texas A&M
UNC is better than Lipscomb in just about every statistical category, except for free throw attempts and 3 point defense. UNC rarely fouls and Lipscomb is a poor three point shooting team, essentially nullifying these UNC weaknesses.
Winner: UNC
This is an Xavier team that is a better, more mature version of the 11 seed that went on a big run last year. They are one of the best offenses in the country and are elite defensive rebounders. They have good but not great defense and offensive rebounding. This Missouri team is good and Porter Jr adds a great player and a degree of unpredictability to this matchup.
Winner: Xavier
Gonzaga is an average paced team with an extremely balanced an efficient offense. They are an elite defensive team that struggles to defend the 3. They are an elite rebounding team that rarely turns the ball over or fouls.
Gonzaga has an elite rebounder who can consistently grab offensive rebounders. They have a player who can consistently generate free throws.
Ohio State is a very slow paced team with an extremely efficient offense. They have a great overall defense and are roughly average at defending the 3 point line. They can block shots without fouling. They are a great rebounding team and an elite defensive rebounding team. They are good at limiting their turnovers.
Ohio State has one elite scorer. They have a player who can somewhat consistently generate free throws, a player who can grab offensive rebounds, and a shot blocker.
No one thing stands out, but Gonzaga is slightly better than Ohio state in most statistical categories.
Winner: Gonzaga
Michigan is a very slow paced team with an extremely efficient offense that takes a high number of 3's. They have good but not great defense. They are an elite defensive rebounding team that struggles to get offensive rebounds. They very rarely foul or turn the ball over.
Houston is a slow paced team that has an efficient offense with great 3 point shooting. They have one of the best defenses in college basketball and defend the 3 very well. They are an elite rebounding team, and one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They take care of the ball, but are one of the most foul heavy teams in the country.
They have an elite scorer in Rob Gray Jr who can consistently generate free throws. Houston has a player that shoots 7 3 pointers a game at 44%.
Just like the last matchup, Houston is just better at everything that Michigan is good at. Unless Houston fouls like crazy, Michigan should lose.
Winner: Houston
Texas A&M plays at an above average pace and passes the ball very well. They have an efficeint overall offense, but struggle from 3. They have one of the top overall defenses in college basketball. They are one of the best shot blocking teams in college basketball. They are an average defensive rebounding team but an elite offensive rebounding team. They rarely foul, but don't take care of the basketball.
A&M has two elite rebounders, two great offensive rebounders, a shot blocker, and a player who can consistently generate free throws.
UNC is a fast paced team that shoots an above average number of 3's and makes them at a great rate. They pass the ball extremely well and have a very efficient offense. They have a very good defense but are terrible at defending 3's. They are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country and are a great defensive rebounding team. They rarely foul.
UNC has great individual players who can score, rebound, and pass; but, they don't have anyone who can consistently get free throws.
UNC won't have the size to hang with A&M.
Winner: A&M
Xavier will take advantage of Gonzaga's poor 3 point defense and one or more of their shooters will get hot.
Winner: Xavier
This will be a low scoring game. Houston will slow down the pace, get a few key steals, and hit some threes that will become even more important with a slow pace game.
Winner: Houston
Houston is commits the 30th most fouls in the NCAA while playing at a slow pace. Xavier already generates a ton of free throws. Houston finally hits a team that won't miss free throws.
Winner: Xavier
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It's 1 vs 16.
Winner: Villanova
Virginia tech plays at an average pace and has one of the most efficient offenses in the country. They pass the ball extremely well. They have a great overall defense, but an average 3 point defense. They very rarely foul or turn the ball over, but struggle to force steals or block shots. They are a very poor rebounding team.
They have balanced scoring and a player who can consistently generate free throws.
Alabama plays at an average pace and has a good overall offense, but struggle to pass the ball and shoot 3's. They have an elite overall defense and 3pt defense. They are one of the best shot blocking teams in the country and are above average at getting steals. They are careless with the ball and foul often. They are above average offensive rebounders, but are poor defensive rebounders.
Alabama has an elite scorer, a shot blocker, an offensive rebounder, and two players who can consistently generate free throws.
Winner: Alabama (If Hall plays)
West Virginia plays at an average pace, but takes a high number of threes. Overall they have a below average offense, but are average at shooting 3's. Their strength lies in their ability to offensive rebound, block shots, and steal the ball. They have a great overall defense, but are poor at defending the 3 point line.
Murray state plays at a slow pace and has all of the strengths that typical slow paced 12 seed upset teams have.
Winner:Murray State
Wichita state will play much better defense and have a huge rebounding advantage.
Winner: Wichita State
St. Bonaventure meets almost all of the common factors of average paced 11 seeds that pull off first round upsets. Additionally, they have an elite 3 point defense, nullifying one of Florida's biggest strengths. Florida is not good at defending 3's. Florida's only hope is for St. Bonaventure to foul often.
Winner: St. Bonaventure
This is one of those scenarios where one team is a better version of the other team. Texas Tech is as good or better than SFA in most categories that SFA is strong in. Additionally, TTU has a great 3 point defense and is one of the best teams at forcing steals in the country. SFU is also great at forcing steals, but is extremely turnover prone.
Winner: Texas Tech
These teams are very similar with the key difference of Arkansas having a vastly better defense and Butler being a better defensive rebounder. Neither is great at 3 point defense and Arkansas is the better shooting team.
Winner: Arkansas
Winner: Purdue
Bama's great defense was able to carry them through the first round, but Villanova is too good all around.
Winner: Villnova
Murray State should be able to win this won by hitting 3's. Just like WVU, Wichita State is a very poor 3 point defending team. Murray state plays at a slow pace and has almost all of the common traits that two win 12-seeds tend to have.
Winner: Murray State
This one will be close, but TTU is just slightly better in most areas. They will have a big offensive rebounding advantage in this game and their tendency to draw free throw attempts will combine with St. Bonaventure's high level of fouls.
Winner: Texas Tech
Purdue will slow this game down to their pace and very slowly build a lead. Arkansas will keep it close, but Purdue will slowly pull away with a more efficient offense, better defense, and Arkansas poor defensive rebounding and tendency to foul.
Winner: Purdue
No 12-seed has won in this round since 2002. This Villanova team is too good and doesn't have any major weaknesses.
Winner: Villanova
Winner: Pudue
Villanova has too many guys who can score. Purdue's 3 point defense is good but it won't be good enough. Villanova will out rebound Purdue and sink their free throws down the stretch to win this one.
Winner: Villanova
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Every 1 seed will advance this year. Even with an injury to a key player, UVA will advance to the next round.
Winner: UVA
These two teams are extremely similar in almost every way except for pace. Creighton is a very fast paced team and Kansas State is a very slow paced team. Both have very efficient offenses and pass the ball well, but Creighton is a great 3 point shooting team and Kansas State is not. Both teams defend the 3 point line well and rarely turn the ball over. Kansas State is great at getting steals.
Winner: Kansas State - They will win because they will slow the game down, win the turnover battle and defend the 3 point line well. Creighton does not have anyone who can consistently generate free throws...Kansas state does.
These two teams are very different from each other and their strengths and weaknesses act as counters.
Davidson is an extremely slow paced team who passes very well and has an extremely efficient offense that takes and makes a ton of 3's. They have a roughly average defense that can't block shots or force steals. They are elite defensive rebounders and rarely foul or turn the ball over.
Davidson has 3 players who are true scoring threats and one player who is a great rebounder. They have one player who consistently draws free throws.
Kentucky is an efficient offense that doesn't pass the ball well. They are elite offensive rebounders and take a ton of free throws. They have an elite defense, especially 3 point defense, and are great shot blockers. They foul often and rarely force steals.
Kentucky has balanced scoring with one focal point. They have 3 players who can draw free throws consistently. However, they may be missing their best rebounder and for this game which could cause them to lose their offensive rebounding dominance.
Winner: Davidson (if Vanderbilt is out) If Vanderbilt does not play, Kentucky loses a great offensive rebounder. His loss combined with Davidson's elite defensive rebounding, could neutralize one of Kentucky's biggest strengths. This one will be close either way.
Buffalo is a very fast paced team and Arizona is slightly below average paced. Buffalo is the classic run and gun high volume 3 point shooting team that is always an upset threat. Both teams are good 3 point shooters and have efficient overall offenses. Both have solid defenses, but Buffalo is good at defending the 3 point line. Both teams are good at blocking shots and both teams are great offensive rebounders.
Buffalo won't be able to keep up with Arizona because their 3pt shooting will be brought closer to average by Arizona's defense. Their great offensive rebounding will be somewhat negated by Arizona's elite defensive rebounding, and they have no counter for Arizona's offensive rebounding. Buffalo fouls often and Arizona is already takes a high number of Free Throws per game.
Ayton is going to get a lot of offensive rebounds and take a lot of free throws.
Winner: Arizona
This is another game that could be massively impacted by an injury. Miami is an efficient offense that can shoot the 3 at an above average percentage. They have a good defense that is defends the 3 point line well. They block shots and can force steals, and rarely foul or turn the ball over.
Miami might be missing their best player who leads the team in rebounds, assists, and free throw attempts.
Loyola Chicago plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. They have the second most efficient offense, great ball movement, and great 3 point shooting. They have a great defense and defend the 3 point line well. They are poor offensive rebounders but are good defensive rebounders. They rarely foul and are above average at taking care of the ball and forcing steals.
Loyola has extremely balanced scoring. 6 players score 10 or more points per game. They have a player who can consistently grab offensive rebounds.
Winner: Loyola
Tennessee is a slow paced team with elite 3 point shooting and ball movement. They have an elite defense that can defend the 3 point line extremely well while also blocking shots at an elite rate and forcing steals at an average rate. They are an elite offensive rebounding team
Tennessee has two good scorers, a consistent offensive rebounder, a shot blocker, and a player who consistently generates free throws.
Wright State plays at an average pace and has an inefficient offense with poor 3 point shooting. They have a great overall defense, but are average at defending the 3 point line. They can force steals at an above average rate, but are terrible shot blockers. They rarely foul and are a great defensive rebounding team.
Wright State has 3 consistent scorers. They have two great rebounders and one elite offensive rebounder.
Winner: Tennessee- The game will be close early on, but 14 seeds that pull off upsets are great offenses that force a ton of steals.
Nevada plays at a slightly above average pace. They take and make a high number of 3's and have an overall very efficient offense that passes the ball well. They have a good defense that excels at defending 3's and they can block shots well without fouling often. They rarely turn the ball over.
Nevada has 4 players averaging over 13 points per game, one who scores 19.1 and another who scores 17.9. They have an elite rebounder and and offensive rebounder. They have two players who can consistently generate free throws and have 2 high volume three point shooters who could get hot.
Texas plays at a slightly below average pace. Their offensive efficiency is below average and they are terrible at passing the ball and shooting 3's. They have a great overall defense that defends the 3 point line well and can block shots well without fouling. They don't rarely turn the ball over.
Texas has balanced scoring with 3 players averaging roughly 12 PPG. They have one elite rebounder and one great rebounder. They have two players who can consistently grab offensive rebounds. Bamba is averaging 3.2 Blocks per game.
Winner: Nevada
Cincinnati plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. They have an average overall offense, but pass the ball extremely well. They are an elite defense that defends the 3 extremely well. They block shots and force steals without fouling. They are a great rebounding team and are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They rarely turn the ball over.
Cincinnati has very balanced scoring. They have an elite rebounder, an elite offensive rebounder, and a player who can consistently generate free throws.
Georgia State plays at a slow pace but takes and makes a high number of 3's. They don't pass the ball well, but overall they have an efficient offense. They have one of the best overall defenses in the country, but are only above average at defending the 3 point line. They are very good at blocking shots and forcing steals, but foul often. They rarely turn the ball over but are not very good as a team at rebounding.
Georgia state has one elite scorer who can consistently generate free throws.
Winner: Cincinnati. Cincinnati will slow down Georgia State's 3 point attack, grab offensive rebounds and shoot a ton of free throws.
This is a pretty normal UVA team. They play at the slowest pace in the country, They are an efficient offense and an elite 3 point shooting team that moves the ball well. They are an elite defense and are elite at defending the 3 point line. They rarely foul or turn the ball over and are good at getting steals.
UVA lost a key player. They lost their top free throw generator, an area where they already struggled. They have one player who shoots 3's at a high volume and one player who can consistently get offensive rebounds.
Based on their team statistics, Kansas State looks like a diet UVA. They have the same strengths as UVA (minus 3 point shooting) but are slightly worse in almost every category. They are great at forcing steals.
Kansas State wont be able to take advantage of the loss of Hunter. They don't have the rebounders to capitalize on UVA's rebounding weakness. UVA is too careful with the ball to make their ability to steal a major game changer. UVA won't lose, yet.
Winner: UVA
Davidson's slow pace won't affect Arizona too much. Davidson will try to barrage Arizona with 3's, but Arizona is just as capable at making threes and have a much more efficient overall offense. Davidson won't be able to keep Arizona off the offensive glass the whole game. Davidson will keep it close, but Arizona's rebounding dominance will carry them through to the next round.
Winner: Arizona
Tennessee is a slow paced team with elite 3 point shooting and ball movement. They have an elite defense that can defend the 3 point line extremely well while also blocking shots at an elite rate and forcing steals at an average rate. They are an elite offensive rebounding team
Tennessee has two good scorers, a consistent offensive rebounder, a shot blocker, and a player who consistently generates free throws.
Loyola Chicago plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. They have the second most efficient offense, great ball movement, and great 3 point shooting. They have a great defense and defend the 3 point line well. They are poor offensive rebounders but are good defensive rebounders. They rarely foul and are above average at taking care of the ball and forcing steals.
Loyola has extremely balanced scoring. 6 players score 10 or more points per game. They have a player who can consistently grab offensive rebounds.
11 seeds that tend to win in this round have someone who can generate free throws and have a dominant scorer. They are almost always dominant offensive rebounders as well. Loyola doesn't have it. Tennessee will barely escape this one.
Winner: Tennessee
Cincinnati plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. They have an average overall offense, but pass the ball extremely well. They are an elite defense that defends the 3 extremely well. They block shots and force steals without fouling. They are a great rebounding team and are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They rarely turn the ball over.
Cincinnati has very balanced scoring. They have an elite rebounder, an elite offensive rebounder, and a player who can consistently generate free throws.
Nevada plays at a slightly above average pace. They take and make a high number of 3's and have an overall very efficient offense that passes the ball well. They have a good defense that excels at defending 3's and they can block shots well without fouling often. They rarely turn the ball over.
Nevada has 4 players averaging over 13 points per game, one who scores 19.1 and another who scores 17.9. They have an elite rebounder and and offensive rebounder. They have two players who can consistently generate free throws and have 2 high volume three point shooters who could get hot.
Nevada is good, but Cincinnati offensive rebounding and foul aversion will be the key to their win in this round.
Winner: Cincinnati
This is where the injury will hurt UVA. A combination of losing a key player and Arizona's rebounding dominance enhanced by UVA's poor rebounding will be the deciding factor in this game.
Winner: Arizona
Cincinnati plays at one of the slowest paces in college basketball. They have an average overall offense, but pass the ball extremely well. They are an elite defense that defends the 3 extremely well. They block shots and force steals without fouling. They are a great rebounding team and are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They rarely turn the ball over.
Cincinnati has very balanced scoring. They have an elite rebounder, an elite offensive rebounder, and a player who can consistently generate free throws.
Tennessee is a slow paced team with elite 3 point shooting and ball movement. They have an elite defense that can defend the 3 point line extremely well while also blocking shots at an elite rate and forcing steals at an average rate. They are an elite offensive rebounding team
Tennessee has two good scorers, a consistent offensive rebounder, a shot blocker, and a player who consistently generates free throws.
These two teams are very similar. Both of their offensive rebounds should off set over the course of the game, but Cincinnati will get extra possessions through steals and Tennessee fouls more often.
Winner: Cincinnati
This is a tough one to call. It's an elite offense vs. an elite defense and a good offense vs. a good defense. Cincinnati's offensive rebounding won't be enough against Arizona. Arizona is and elite offensive and defensive rebounding team. They will win the rebounding margin and get a few key extra possessions.
Winner: Arizona
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In part two, we will be looking at the 54 teams who had two or more unexpected wins since 2001. 39 teams won 2 unexpected games, 10 won 3 unexpected games, and 5 have won 4 or more unexpected games.
The two win teams break into 5 somewhat evenly spread groups. 7 teams play at a slow pace below the 25th percentile. 5 teams play at a pace between the 30th and 36th percentiles. 12 teams play at a somewhat average pace between the 40th and 63rd percentiles. 9 play at an above average pace between the 67th and 77th percentiles. 6 teams play at a fast pace at the 81st percentile or above. Overall, these 39 teams have 5 main common strengths. They are efficient offensively. The least efficient offense in this group is slightly below average. They have strong overall defenses, win the rebounding battle, and are turnover averse.
They have players who can consistently generate free throws and grab offensive rebounds.
These seven teams are foul averse, take care of the ball, pass well, and score efficiently.
These teams tend to have a player who is a dominant rebounder and a player who can consistently generate free throws.
These five team have the same common strengths that the slower paced teams have. They tend to have efficient offenses, good defenses, rebound well, and take care of the ball.
They have players who can consistently generate free throws and grab offensive rebounds.
These 12 teams tend to be efficient offenses with good ball movement who are turnover averse and rebound well. They usually have a strong defense as well.
They tend to have players who can consistently generate free throws.
These nine teams have tend to be have efficient offenses and good overall defenses.
They have players who can consistently generate free throws and grab offensive rebounds.
These 6 teams grab offensive rebounds, steal the ball and defend well
They have players who can consistently generate free throws and grab offensive rebounds.
2 of the 3 13-seeds that won two games beat 12 seeds in the second round. 5 of the 10 12-seeded teams who won 2 or more games beat 13-seeds in the second round.
The 7 11-seeds who won two games rarely played against a 14 seed. They all had great ball movement. All 7 of these teams had a player who could consistently generate free throws and all 7 had at least on player who scored 15 or more points per game. 6 of the 7 had at least one player who averaged 3 offensive rebounds per game.
The 8 10-seeds with two wins were efficient offensively, rebounded well, defended well, and had shot blockers. 6 of the 8 teams had a player who blocked at least 2 shots per game, 6 had a player who averaged 5 or more free throws per game.
These 10 teams were excellent offensive rebounders and moved the ball well. Only two of these teams played at an above average pace.
These teams had players who were high scorers and could consistently grab offensive rebounds
These 5 teams made some of the most memorable runs in the tournament. They all had very different play styles, but had these main strengths in common. These teams took care of the ball and defended the 3 point line.
These teams had players who were high scorers, could consistently grab offensive rebounds, and could consistently generate free throws.
The common strengths that we saw in part one are the same strengths that appear in part two. Pace is the determining factor for what strengths to look for in a potential upset team. Longer runs tend to come from slower paced teams. Regardless of pace, the main takeaways are that teams must have players with the ability to generate free throws and grab offensive rebounds.
It's finally time for the NCAA tournament. Over the next few days, you will blow off work, constantly check your brackets, find good streaming options, and hope to win money and bragging rights. Upsets and people complaining about their brackets are the only constant of the NCAA tournament, so we've analyzed every upset in the NCAA tournament since 2001 to help predict when they will occur. This guide should show, based on past tournaments, what to look for when you pick first round upsets.
We've taken all 140 teams that have upset a team in the NCAA tournament since 2001 and have organized their ranking in 15 stat categories. I took their ranking from the 351 D1 NCAA teams and converted it into a percentile. 50 percentile is average at a category and 99 percentile is in the top 3 at a category. The stat categories are: Three Pointers Attempted per game, Field Goal percentage, 3 point percentage, Free Throws attempted per game, Free Throw percentage, Assist percentage, Defensive field goal percentage, defensive 3 point percentage, blocks per game, steals per game, rebounding margin, offensive rebounding percentage, defensive rebounding percentage, fouls per game, and turnovers per game. I then organized these teams by seed and pace of play, and "unexpected wins." An unexpected win is an advancement in the tournament that should not happen based on seeding. For example, every game that a 10 seed or lower wins is an unexpected win. A 7 seed will only have unexpected wins after it advances past its potential matchup with a 2 seed.
21of the 68 10-seeds have pulled off a first round upset since the 2001 tournament. 11 of these teams have multiple unexpected wins: 8 with 2 wins and 3 with 3 wins. These 21 teams break down very evenly based on pace. 8 play at a slower pace in the bottom 35th percentile, 6 teams play at an average pace in the 40th to 67th percentile, and 7 play at a faster pace in the 74th -99th percentiles.
If you are thinking about having a 10 seed upset a 7 seed in the first round, these are the key strengths that the 10 seed should:
These 8 teams have a few common strengths. They take care of the ball, have efficient offenses, have good ball movement , shoot a lot of 3's , and they are foul averse.
They have players who can consistently grab offensive rebounds and consistently generate free throws.
These 6 teams are extremely similar. They tend have efficient overall offenses that rarely turn the ball over. They are strong rebounders and good shot blockers. They tend to have good defenses as well.
They tend to have players who can consistently grab offensive rebounds, and consistently generate free throws, and block shots.
These 7 teams play fast and focus on defense. They are defensive playmakers who block shots and steal the ball. They usually have good ball movement.
They tend to have players who can consistently grab offensive rebounds, and consistently generate free throws, and steal the ball.
30 of the 68 11-seeds have upset a 6 seed since 2001. This is the most likely upset. 10 of the past 12 11-seeds have won. 11 11-seeds have multiple wins. 6 have 2 unexpected wins, 3 have 3 unexpected wins, and 3 have 4 unexpected wins. These are the teams that destroy a section of your bracket. They break evenly into 4 pace-based groups. 8 teams play at a slow pace at or below the 25th percentile, 8 play at a below average pace between the 25th and 40th percentiles, 8 play at an average pace between the 41st and 65th percentiles, and 6 teams play at a very fast pace at the 81st percentile and above.
Winning 11 seeds typically have some combination of the following strengths:
The slower teams tend to rely on defense, rebounding, limiting fouls, and ball movement.
They have players who can consistently grab offensive rebounds, consistently generate free throws, and attempt a high number of three pointers per game.
These teams are the typical upset teams that keep making three's and slowly add more to their lead the score. They win in a shootout. They have good ball movement, are great 3-point shooters, and don't turn the ball over often.
They have players who can consistently grab offensive rebounds, consistently generate free throws, and attempt a high number of three pointers per game.
These eight teams are typically great rebounding (especially offensive rebounding) teams who have an efficient offense, move the ball well, and who get steals and blocks without fouling.
They have players who can consistently grab offensive rebounds, consistently generate free throws, and attempt a high number of three pointers per game.
These six teams don't fit the stereotype of a run and gun three point shooting team. They are almost identical statistically. They share the ball, have an efficient overall offense, generate free throws, rebound, and force steals.
They have players who can consistently grab offensive rebounds, consistently generate free throws, and attempt a high number of three pointers per game.
This is the second most likely upset to occur. Since the 2001 tournament, 28 of the 68 12-seeded teams have won in the first round. 8 of the 28 have won two games and 1 has won 3 games. No twelve seed in that time frame has won more than 3 games. The 12-seeds don't break evenly into paced groups like the 10 and 11 seeds do. 12-seeded teams that win tend to play slower. 15 of the 28 teams play at a slow 32nd percentile pace or below. 8 of the 28 teams play at averaged pace between the 42nd and 63rd percentiles. 5 of the 28 teams play at a fast pace at the 70th percentile or above.
These 15 teams have a some very common traits. They are typically efficient offenses that move the ball well and are capable 3 point shooters. They rarely foul or turn the ball over. They focus on 3 point defense, but usually have a good overall defense. They are usually good rebounders as well. Here is where they most commonly excel.
They have players who can consistently generate free throws and attempt a high number of three pointers per game.
These 8 teams are built around shot blocking and ball movement leading to efficient offense who takes care of the basketball.
These five teams focus on rebounding, steals, efficient offense, and 3-point defense.
They have players who can consistently grab offensive rebounds, consistently generate free throws, and attempt a high number of three pointers per game.
Since the 2001 NCAA tournament, there have been 14 13-seeded teams that have won at least one game. 3 of these teams won 2 games. Like the 12 seeds, the winning 13 seeds tend to skew to slower paced teams. 7 of the teams played at a slow pace 35th percentile pace or below. 4 of the teams play at a close to average pace between the 46th and 58th percentiles. 3 of the teams play at a faster pace between the 72nd and 79th percentiles.
These teams have great defenses and rarely turn the ball over.
They have players who can consistently grab offensive rebounds, consistently generate free throws, and attempt a high number of three pointers per game.
These 4 teams were great defensively and were able to force steals without fouling. They had great ball movement that lead to efficient offense.
They have players who can consistently grab offensive rebounds and attempt a high number of three pointers per game.
These three teams relied on steals. They had an efficient offense due to points off turnovers and had strong overall defenses.
They have players who can consistently grab offensive rebounds, consistently generate free throws, and steal the ball.
Only 13 of these teams have won a game since the 2001 tournament. One 15-seeded team (Florida Gulf Coast) has won two games. I don't think these happen frequently enough to establish any trends. The 15 seeds tended to play at extremely fast paces, but the 14 seeds were more evenly distributed. The only consistent trend among these upsets is that they tend to have a defensive play maker. 10 of these teams have a player who averages either 2 or more steals or a player who averages 2 or more blocks.
The biggest factor in determining what team strengths to focus on is pace of play and seed. Teams can have individual players that make up for any weakness. Having players who can generate free throws and consistently get offensive rebounds (or deny them) can overcome most talent gaps. If a player is a volume 3 point shooter, his shots won't disrupt the offense and he could get hot and change the game. Later today, I will make a similar post about the 54 teams that won 2 or more unexpected wins. If you enjoyed this or found it helpful, please take this two minute survey.
Statistically, UNC and Duke excel in the same areas. However, Duke is better in most of these areas. Both of these rank high in possessions per game. There will be a lot of shots attempted, but neither team will be out of their comfort zone. Both of these teams are poor at forcing turnovers and usually generate these extra possessions through offensive rebounding. Both teams are elite rebounding teams and rank among the top teams in the country in offensive rebounds per game. Duke blocks more shots per game, has more assists per game, turns the ball over less, and forces more turnovers. Rivalry games are almost always close, but Duke should win if they can accomplish these 3 tasks.
This game will a good test for both of these teams. Oklahoma is great at home (11-0) and 3 of West Virginia's 6 losses were on the road. Both teams play at a fast pace. Both teams protect the rim well. Oklahoma is #21 in BPG and West Virginia is #29 in BPG. They both shoot a high number of 3 pointers. Oklahoma is #49 in 3pt Attempts and WVU is #41. But, their differences will be the deciding factor in this game.
Oklahoma will shoot the lights out from 3. They take the 49th most 3's and make them at the 26th best percentage. West Virginia has the 219th ranked 3 point percentage defense. WVU commits the 23rd most fouls per game. Oklahoma will make them pay from the line by shooting close to 75% as a team. Oklahoma has an elite defensive rebounding team in terms of defensive rebounds per game, grabbing the 9th most DRPG. WVU is an elite offensive rebounding team, with the 2nd most ORPG. These strengths should neutralize each other. WVU is an extremely inefficient offense, #273 overall field goal percentage. If Oklahoma limits West Virginia's second chance points, they should start to run away with the game. However, WVU forces the 4th most turnovers per game and Oklahoma is somewhat turnover prone, committing the 133rd most turnovers per game.
Oklahoma will take advantage of West Virginia's poor 3pt defense and limit their offensive rebounds. West Virginia will force turnovers, but it won't be enough as Oklahoma will steadily increase their lead with a barrage of 3 pointers. Oklahoma's strengths perfectly line up with West Virginia's weaknesses, while also neutralizing WVU's elite offensive rebounding. West Virginia's road struggles will continue and Oklahoma will walk away with the win.
March Madness is one of the best college sporting events. It's got a ton of games, it's exciting, it's easy for fans to get involved, and it's extremely unpredictable. 64 teams will battle it out to determine which of the 9.2 quintillion possible outcomes will become a reality. There are a few things that are guaranteed to happen. Highly ranked teams will lose, underdogs will become fan favorites, and your friends, family, and colleagues will complain about their bracket. The key to not being one of those people complaining is information. We can use the Fanalysis app to profile teams and determine how they play down the stretch during any circumstance. With this guide, you can profile probable tournament teams to see how they play under various conditions. This will allow you to take a data-driven approach to filling out your bracket on a match-up by match-up basis.Now that you've read or skipped past the intro, here are the Team Profiling instructions.
Fanalysis can be a great way to make yourself more involved with your favorite college basketball teams and make your fan experience better! But, it is also powerful tool for college basketball analysis. Fanalysis lets you create, track, and analyze your own stats. The only limit is your own creativity. You can see how anything you think is important affects the game. Tracking these stats is a great way to start using the app and to unleash your own creativity! We've broken these suggested stats down into 5 categories: Fan Impact, Involvement, Matchups, Game Conditions, and Subjective.
Have fun and get creative with your stats! If you find anything interesting, let us know through social media!
