Anatomy of an upset Pt. 2 - Unexpected Runs

In part two, we will be looking at the 54 teams who had two or more unexpected wins since 2001. 39 teams won 2 unexpected games, 10 won 3 unexpected games, and 5 have won 4 or more unexpected games. 

Two Win Teams

The two win teams break into 5 somewhat evenly spread groups. 7 teams play at a slow pace below the 25th percentile. 5 teams play at a pace between the 30th and 36th percentiles. 12 teams play at a somewhat average pace between the 40th and 63rd percentiles. 9 play at an above average pace between the 67th and 77th percentiles. 6 teams play at a fast pace at the 81st percentile or above. Overall, these 39 teams have 5 main common strengths. They are efficient offensively. The least efficient offense in this group is slightly below average. They have strong overall defenses, win the rebounding battle, and are turnover averse.

1. Efficient Offense: 29 of the 39 teams have an overall field goal percentage in the top 70th percentile or above.
2. Strong Defense: 27 of the 39 teams have an overall defensive field goal percentage in the top 70th percentile or above. 
3. Rebounding: 28 of the 39 teams have a rebounding margin in the top 70th percentile or above. 25 are in the top 70th percentile or better at offensive rebounding percentage
4. Ball Security: 24 of the 39 teams are in the top 70th percentile or above for turnovers per game.

They have players who can consistently generate free throws and grab offensive rebounds.

1. Free Throw Generation: 28 of the 39 teams have at least 1 player who averages 5 or more free throws per game. 
2. Offensive Rebounder: 29 of the 39 teams have at least 1 player who averages 2.5 offensive rebounds per game.

Slow paced 2 win teams

These seven teams are foul averse, take care of the ball, pass well, and score efficiently.

1. Foul Averse: All 7 teams are in the top 70th percentile or above in fouls per game.
2. Ball Security: All 7 teams are in the top 70th percentile or above in turnovers per game.
3. Efficient Offense: 6 of the 7 teams rank in the in the top 70th percentile or above in 3 point field goal percentage, and 5 rank in in the top 70th percentile or above in overall field goal percentage.
4. Ball Movement: 5 of the 7 teams rank in in the top 70th percentile or above in assist percentage.

These teams tend to have a player who is a dominant rebounder and a player who can consistently generate free throws.

1. Rebounder: 5 of the 7 teams have at least one player who averages 8 or more rebounds per game.
2. Free Throw Generator: 4 of the 7 teams have at least one player who averages at least 5 free throws per game

Below Average Paced 2 win teams

These five team have the same common strengths that the slower paced teams have. They tend to have efficient offenses, good defenses, rebound well, and take care of the ball.

1. Efficient Offense: 4 of the 5 teams have an overall field goal percentage in the top 70th percentile or above. 4 of the 5 teams have a 3 point field goal percentage in the top 70th percentile or above
2. Strong Defense: 4 of the 5 teams have an overall defensive field goal percentage in the top 70th percentile or above. 3 of the 5 teams have an overall defensive 3 point field goal percentage in the top 70th percentile or above.
3. Rebounding: 4 of the 5 teams have a rebounding margin in the top 70th percentile or above.
4. Ball Security: 4 of the 5 teams are in the top 70th percentile or above for turnovers per game.

They have players who can consistently generate free throws and grab offensive rebounds.

1. Free Throw Generation: All 5  teams have at least 1 player who averages 5 or more free throws per game. 
2. Offensive Rebounder: 4 of the 5 teams have at least 1 player who averages 2.5 offensive rebounds per game.

Average Paced 2 win teams

These 12 teams tend to be efficient offenses with good ball movement who are turnover averse and rebound well. They usually have a strong defense as well.

1. Efficient offense: 9 of the 12 teams have an overall field goal percentage in the top 70th percentile or above.
2. Ball movement: 8 of the 12 teams rank in in the top 70th percentile or above in assist percentage.
3. Turnovers: 11 of the 12 teams are in the top 70th percentile or above for turnovers per game.
4. Rebounding: 8 of the 12 teams have a rebounding margin in the top 70th percentile or above. 8 of the 12 teams have an offensive rebounding percentage in the top 70th percentile or above.

They tend to have players who can consistently generate free throws.

1. Free Throw Generation: 8 of the 12 teams have at least 1 player who averages 5 or more free throws per game.

Above Average Paced 2 win teams

These nine teams have tend to be have efficient offenses and good overall defenses.

1. Efficient Offense: 7 of the 9 teams have an overall field goal percentage in the top 70th percentile or above.
2. Defense: 7 of the 9 teams have a defensive field goal percentage in the top 70th percentile or above.

They have players who can consistently generate free throws and grab offensive rebounds.

1. Free Throw Generation: 8 of the 9 teams have at least 1 player who averages 5 or more free throws per game. 
2. Offensive Rebounder: 7 of the 9 teams have at least 1 player who averages 2.5 offensive rebounds per game.

Fast paced 2 win teams

These 6 teams grab offensive rebounds, steal the ball and defend well

1. Offensive rebounding: All 6 of these teams have an offensive rebounding percentage in the top 70th percentile or above.
2. Steals: 5 of the 6 teams are in the top 70th percentile or above in steals per game.
3. Defense: 5 of the 6 teams have a defensive field goal percentage in the top 70th percentile or above.

They have players who can consistently generate free throws and grab offensive rebounds.

1. Free Throw Generation: 3 of the 6 teams have at least 1 player who averages 5 or more free throws per game. 
2. Offensive Rebounder: 4 of the 6 teams have at least 1 player who averages 2.5 offensive rebounds per game.

Other 2 win trends

2 of the 3 13-seeds that won two games beat 12 seeds in the second round. 5 of the 10 12-seeded teams who won 2 or more games beat 13-seeds in the second round.

The 7 11-seeds who won two games rarely played against a 14 seed. They all had great ball movement. All 7 of these teams had a player who could consistently generate free throws and all 7 had at least on player who scored 15 or more points per game. 6 of the 7 had at least one player who averaged 3 offensive rebounds per game. 

The 8 10-seeds with two wins were efficient offensively, rebounded well, defended well, and had shot blockers. 6 of the 8 teams had a player who blocked at least 2 shots per game, 6 had a player who averaged 5 or more free throws per game. 

3 unexpected wins

These 10 teams were excellent offensive rebounders and moved the ball well. Only two of these teams played at an above average pace.

1. Offensive Rebounding: 9 of the 10 teams were in the top 70 percentile or better in offensive rebounding percentage. 8 were in the top 80 percentile. The worst offensive rebounding team of this group was above the national average
2. Ball movement: 7 of the 10 teams were in the top 70 percentile or better in assist percentage.

These teams had players who were high scorers and could consistently grab offensive rebounds

1. Scorers: 7 of the 10 teams had at least one player who averaged over 15 Points per game.
2. Offensive rebounders: 9 of the 10 teams had at least one player who averaged at least 2.5 offensive rebounds per game.

4 or more unexpected wins

These 5 teams made some of the most memorable runs in the tournament. They all had very different play styles, but had these main strengths in common. These teams took care of the ball and defended the 3 point line. 

1. Turnovers: 4 of the 5 teams were in the top 70 percentile in turnovers per game. The other team was above the national average.
2. 3 point defense: 4 of the 5 teams were in the top 70 percentile in 3 point field goal percentage. The other team was above the national average.

These teams had players who were high scorers, could consistently grab offensive rebounds, and could consistently generate free throws.

1. Scorers: 4 of the 5 teams had at least one player who scored 15 or more points per game. The other team had all 5 starters scoring in double digits.
2. Offensive rebounding: 4 of the 5 teams had at least one player who averaged at least 2.5 offensive rebounds per game.
3. Free throws: 4 of the 5 teams have at least 1 player who averages 5 or more free throws per game. 

Conclusion

The common strengths that we saw in part one are the same strengths that appear in part two. Pace is the determining factor for what strengths to look for in a potential upset team. Longer runs tend to come from slower paced teams. Regardless of pace, the main takeaways are that teams must have players with the ability to generate free throws and grab offensive rebounds.